Former President Donald Trump’s latest effort to broker peace in Ukraine might sound generous—but only to Moscow. And even then, it may not be enough to sway Vladimir Putin.
Trump has put a ticking clock on a potential peace deal, pushing publicly for a swift resolution. On Wednesday, he claimed negotiating with Russia is proving easier than with Ukraine. That’s a risky calculation—and perhaps a misreading of the situation. While Ukraine relies heavily on U.S. support and is more vulnerable to pressure, that doesn’t make the Kremlin more open to compromise. In fact, they appear to be in no rush at all.
This isn’t a real estate deal, but it’s being approached like one. Trump is trying to close a negotiation where the other party—Putin—is already betting that time is on his side. The Russian leader seems to believe that prolonging the war will only improve his position.
Trump briefly criticized Russia after a missile strike on Kyiv killed at least 12 civilians, posting a sharply-worded “Vladimir: STOP!” message. Still, his tone was oddly cordial, appearing more concerned about the timing of the attack than its deadly outcome.
Meanwhile, Russia has ignored a standing U.S.-Ukraine proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, now over six weeks old. Instead, they offered a 30-hour Easter truce—quickly broken, according to Ukraine, thousands of times. Both sides have accused each other of violating earlier energy and infrastructure ceasefires.
This pattern raises doubts over the credibility of any diplomatic commitments. Ukraine’s allies argue that Russia uses ceasefires to regroup rather than to negotiate in good faith.
The bigger question remains: What exactly is Trump proposing? The details of his peace plan are vague. A temporary halt in fighting seems unlikely given recent battlefield developments. A broader détente between Washington and Moscow might be on Trump’s wish list, but without a stable resolution in Ukraine, that could split the NATO alliance and damage U.S. credibility on the world stage—politically and economically.
There’s also little clarity on what Trump expects from Ukraine. He urged President Volodymyr Zelensky to “GET IT DONE” in a recent post, but didn’t specify what “it” meant. While he has denied asking Kyiv to recognize Russia’s claim over Crimea, reports suggest that may still be part of the plan—along with possibly freezing the current frontlines.
Neither of those concessions offer much value. Crimea, connected to Russian-occupied territory but isolated from Russia except by a vulnerable bridge, remains under strict international sanctions. Recognizing it as Russian would not change that and would undermine the international stance against redrawing borders by force.
Even freezing the battle lines might not appeal to Moscow, which seems confident it can gain more territory in the future. Russia’s long game involves exhausting Ukraine’s manpower and waiting out U.S. aid, which could dry up if American political winds shift.
Russia’s public demands also complicate things: no NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, no more foreign intelligence or aid, and upfront sanction relief. These are non-starters for Europe and Ukraine, making a broader peace deal unlikely.
Ultimately, Putin is playing for time, while Trump is racing against it. That fundamental mismatch means any deal reached quickly is unlikely to be durable. For the Kremlin, the longer they drag out talks, the more favorable the outcome could become. Signing a rushed, unstable agreement that can be walked back later might suit Moscow just fine. But it won’t bring peace any closer.
